CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“India announces a new ban, export duty or minimum export price on non-basmati rice exports between 9 October 2026 and 28 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits, published on 8 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.15 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 15 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 28 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.15Locked probability
2026-12-28Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Choke Points of a Hot Pacific: rice export bans and Panama Canal draft limits"
Window as statedfrom 9 October 2026 up to and including 28 December 2026
How it will be settledReuters: YES if Reuters reports that the Government of India has announced a new prohibition, export duty or minimum export price applying to non-basmati rice exports in the window; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familychoke-points-of-a-hot-pacific-rice-export-bans-and-panama; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.