CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“A cloture vote concerning the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 receives at least 60 yeas on or before 30 September 2026.”
This claim comes from Sixty Votes, One Honest Unknown, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.55 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 55 in 100. It resolves by 1 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.55Locked probability
2026-10-01Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-RIB-26-001, forward item ECO2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0038
Window as stated2026-10-01
How it will be settledResolve YES if an official Congressional Record roll call records at least 60 yeas on cloture for the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 on or before 30 September 2026. Resolve NO if every such vote by that date records fewer than 60 yeas or if no such vote occurs by that date.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-RIB-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0038
Band in the reportMODERATE
Record classbrier native
Claim familysixty-votes-or-bust; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.