CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in a meeting all three governments publicly acknowledge as trilateral, on or before 9 October 2026.”
This claim comes from After the Duma, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.55 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 55 in 100. It resolves by 9 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked11 Sep
Did not come true9 Oct
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
From the reportAfter the Duma11 September 2026 · AIG-GOV-26-005Its sibling calls
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.55Locked probability
2026-10-09Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-10-09
0.3025Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 9 October 2026 by a public source at www.aljazeera.com: Ukraine ready for US-backed talks with Russia: Zelenskyy ... the US is pushing for "technical-level talks by the end of October" ... Kyiv is open to the UAE or "another country proposed by the American side."
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-GOV-26-005, forward tranche POL-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0021
Window as stated2026-10-09
How it will be settledYES only if all three governments are physically represented in the same negotiating session and each delegation includes at least one head of state or government, minister, presidential or prime-ministerial envoy, presidential aide, national security adviser, security-council secretary, national intelligence-service head, or chief of the general staff. Deputy ministers, ambassadors, departmental directors, technical delegates, telephone or video calls, shuttle diplomacy, and proximity without evidence of a shared room do not count. All three governments must acknowledge the trilateral meeting through the named official channels. For the United States, an official White House or State Department readout reproduced in the Congressional Record or Federal Register qualifies. A joint statement issued by all three governments satisfies all acknowledgment limbs. If the meeting is acknowledged but shared-room evidence is absent by 9 October, or if only two governments acknowledge it, resolve NO. A qualifying meeting announced before but held after 9 October resolves NO.
Where the probability came fromExplicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-005; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0021
Record classbrier native
Claim familyrussia-ukraine-trilateral-2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.