CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.”
This claim comes from The Rearmament Ledger, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.08 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 8 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 9 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.08Locked probability
2026-10-09Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C1
Window as stated2026-10-09
How it will be settledYES if a roll call vote on a motion to invoke cloture on any NDAA vehicle (S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended, or a successor) appears in the Senate roll call record with a vote date on or before 9 October 2026. A voice vote, a unanimous consent agreement, or a filed but unvoted cloture motion does not count. NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromExplicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C1
Record classbrier native
Claim familysenate-floor-2026-autumn; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.