CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The Panama Canal Authority publishes an Advisory to Shipping, effective on or before 31 October 2026, that either implements a maximum authorised Neopanamax draft of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) or lower, or reduces total daily booking slots below 32.”
This claim comes from Panama's Second Drought, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.20 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 20 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 3 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.20Locked probability
2026-11-03Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-SCL-26-001, forward item SCL1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0039
Window as stated2026-11-03
How it will be settledOn 3 November 2026 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/ and reads every advisory issued between 10 September 2026 and 31 October 2026 inclusive. The claim resolves YES if at least one such advisory states an effective date on or before 31 October 2026 for either (a) a maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of 47.5 ft (14.48 m) TFW or less, or (b) a total of daily booking slots across the Panamax and Neopanamax locks of fewer than 32, counted as the sum of the per-lock daily booking slot figures the advisory itself states. It resolves NO otherwise. An advisory that only announces a future effective date after 31 October 2026 does not resolve it YES. An advisory that postpones, suspends or reverses a previously announced reduction does not resolve it YES. A reduction in auction slots, in reservation periods, in transit windows or in draft in the Panamax locks does not resolve it YES. If the register is unreachable on 3 November 2026, the reader retries daily to 10 November 2026 and, failing that, scores it from the ACP press room at https://pancanal.com/en/news/ on the same rule.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-SCL-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0039
Record classbrier native
Claim familypanamas-second-drought; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.