CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“US Gulf of Mexico shut-in oil production falls below 5% of output by 23 October 2026.”
This claim comes from The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks, published on 9 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.60 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 60 in 100. It resolves by 23 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.60Locked probability
2026-10-23Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks"
Window as statedup to and including 23 October 2026
How it will be settledReuters: YES if the latest Marine Minerals Administration shut-in figure reported by Reuters on or before 23 October 2026 is below 5% of US Gulf of Mexico oil production, or if Reuters reports that the agency has ended its Isaias shut-in reporting by that date; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-09, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.