CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“Baseline is the most probable 90 to 180 day path.”
This claim comes from Venezuela After Maduro, published on 16 June 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 13 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-12-13Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF page 12 (printed 11), Section 06 Outlook, closing Assessment block (MODERATE CONFIDENCE)
Window as stated90 to 180 day
How it will be settledWhether the Baseline conditions on PDF page 11 held through mid-December 2026: February OFAC licenses in force, Rodriguez acting president with US recognition, no competitive election date, production 1.0-1.1 mb/d, no ICJ judgment.
Where the probability came fromConfidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportMODERATE
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familyvenezuela-after-maduro; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.