CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The median projection of the midpoint of the federal funds target range at the end of 2026, in the Summary of Economic Projections released 16 September 2026, in percent.”
This claim comes from The First Warsh Hike?, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm locked a range of 3.8 to 4.4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2026 with a central estimate of 4.1; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 16 September 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
3.8 to 4.4 percent, midpoint of the target range, appropriate policy path, year-end 2026 (central 4.1)Locked range
2026-09-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-002, forward item ECO-1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0035
Window as stated2026-09-16
How it will be settledRead the median value printed in Table 1 of the September 2026 projection materials for the federal funds rate for 2026, as the Board prints it to one decimal place. No derivation, rounding or recomputation from the dot chart is permitted: the number scored is the number the Board prints. SCORING: the claim is scored on interval containment only. It is a HOLD if the printed value lies in the closed interval 3.8 to 4.4 percent and a FAIL otherwise. The point estimate of 4.1 percent is reported for information and is NOT scored; the scorer records the signed difference between the printed value and the point estimate, in percentage points, as a calibration note only. If no Summary of Economic Projections is released on 16 September 2026, the claim is VOID. Note for the scorer: the printed median is the average of the ninth and tenth of eighteen submissions on a 0.125 percentage point grid, so it can only take a sparse set of values; near this level those are 3.6, 3.8, 3.9, 4.0, 4.1, 4.3 and 4.4 percent.
Where the probability came fromLocked interval approved with AIG-ECO-26-002; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0035; outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-first-warsh-hike; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.