CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“The Federal Register publishes, on or before 12 January 2027, a presidential document or USTR notice that extends any US truce measure toward China beyond 10 January 2027.”
This claim comes from Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January, published on 14 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 14 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.55 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 55 in 100. It resolves by 12 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked14 Oct
Resolves by12 Jan
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
From the reportSummit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January14 October 2026 · AIG-GOV-26-011Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-416The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a USTR notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the Section 301 actions on China-linked vessels and cargo handling equipment, whether or not with retroactive effect.75% · resolves in 35 d
- CLM-2026-417President Trump travels to Shenzhen during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and meets Xi Jinping or appears at the meeting there.75% · resolves in 45 d
- CLM-2026-418Xi Jinping attends the G20 leaders' summit in Miami in person.55% · resolves in 63 d
- CLM-2026-420The Federal Register publishes, on or before 20 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities, whether or not with retroactive effect.70% · resolves in 35 d
- CLM-2026-421The Defense Security Cooperation Agency posts a major arms sale notification for Taiwan dated from 10 October to 15 December 2026.15% · resolves in 61 d
- CLM-2026-422The Federal Register publishes, on or before 9 November 2026, a BIS rule or notice that extends beyond 9 November 2026 the suspension of the expansion of end-user controls to affiliates of listed entities.35% · resolves in 25 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.55Locked probability
2027-01-12Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Summit Season: APEC Shenzhen, G20 Miami and the Truce to 10 January"
Window as statedup to and including 12 January 2027
How it will be settledFederal Register: YES if a presidential document or USTR notice published in the Federal Register on or before 12 January 2027 extends any suspension or exclusion granted under the US and China arrangement to a date after 10 January 2027, including by retroactive effect; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familysummit-season-apec-shenzhen-g20-miami-and-the-truce-to-10; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-14, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.