CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The US unemployment rate for November 2026 is at or above 4.5 percent.”
This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?, published on 7 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 7 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.12 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 12 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 11 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.12Locked probability
2026-12-11Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Hiking Into a Supply Shock: does the Fed's first hike in three years end in a hard landing?"
Window as statedfor the month of November 2026
How it will be settledBureau of Labor Statistics: YES if the BLS Employment Situation release for November 2026 reports a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at or above 4.5 percent, as first published, whatever the method; if that release has not appeared by 2026-12-11, the claim resolves on its first publication.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock-does-the-fed-s-first-hike-in; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-07, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.