CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.”
This claim comes from The Rearmament Ledger, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.50 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 50 in 100. It resolves by 5 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.50Locked probability
2026-10-05Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C3
Window as stated2026-10-05
How it will be settledYES if a press release, transcript or official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 states that the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or has been completed. A statement by an Iraqi official, or press reporting alone, does not count. Read on 5 October 2026 to allow for publication lag. NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromExplicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C3
Record classbrier native
Claim familycoalition-iraq-2026-09; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.