CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“United States Central Command or the Department of War publicly announces the completion of the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq on or before 30 September 2026.”
This claim comes from The Rearmament Ledger, published on 10 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.50 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 50 in 100. It resolves by 5 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked10 Sep
Came true5 Oct
Today
On the Defense & Security Horizon
From the reportThe Rearmament Ledger10 September 2026 · AIG-DEF-26-006Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-252The United States Senate holds a recorded cloture vote on a fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act measure on or before 9 October 2026.8% · Did not come true · 9 Oct
- CLM-2026-253A joint resolution of disapproval concerning the Saudi Arabia Joint Direct Attack Munitions Extended Range transmittal (26-35) or the AGT-1500 engines transmittal (26-68), both notified 4 September 2026, receives a recorded vote on the floor of the United States Senate on or before 9 October 2026.10% · Did not come true · 9 Oct
- CLM-2026-255The Department of War announces at least one new Golden Dome, space based interceptor, or Missile Defense Agency SHIELD task order award in its daily contract announcements between 1 October and 15 November 2026 inclusive.40% · resolves in 19 d
- CLM-2026-256Congress enacts a reconciliation measure providing at least $50 billion in new budget authority for the Department of Defense on or before 31 December 2026.10% · resolves in 64 d
- CLM-2026-257Fiscal year 2026 Department of Defense contract obligations under Product Service Code 14xx (guided missiles) exceed $38.0 billion as reported by USAspending.gov.60% · resolves in 48 d
- CLM-2026-258The Haushaltsausschuss of the German Bundestag approves at least 20 defence procurement proposals of more than EUR 25 million between 14 September and 31 October 2026 inclusive.18% · resolves in 10 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.50Locked probability
2026-10-05Resolves by
TRUEOutcome · 2026-10-05
0.2500Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 5 October 2026 by a public source at www.centcom.mil: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed the orderly departure of U.S. forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base, Sept. 30, marking the end of the Operation Inherent Resolve mission in Iraq.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-006, forward tranche CR-3-C3
Window as stated2026-10-05
How it will be settledYES if a press release, transcript or official statement published by CENTCOM or the Department of War on or before 30 September 2026 states that the coalition military mission in Iraq has concluded or has been completed. A statement by an Iraqi official, or press reporting alone, does not count. Read on 5 October 2026 to allow for publication lag. NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromExplicit probability approved with AIG-DEF-26-006; source item CR-3-C3
Record classbrier native
Claim familycoalition-iraq-2026-09; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.