Forty-Seven Days to November 10
What a rollover would and would not fix for rare-earth licensing
The licensing regime has two separable layers: the suspended October 2025 controls and the still-operative April 2025 base layer.
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-262 | MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025. | 0.25 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-10 | Locked | |
| CLM-2026-263 | MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026. | 0.92 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-11-10 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
The licensing regime has two separable layers: the suspended October 2025 controls and the still-operative April 2025 base layer.
The complete source registry, limits, methodology and binding forecast definitions are preserved in the downloadable report. Each forecast is locked before publication to a named public resolution source.
The evidence tiers, confidence bands, forward-claim rule and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.