Forty-Seven Days to November 10
What a rollover would and would not fix for rare-earth licensing
The licensing regime has two separable layers: the suspended October 2025 controls and the still-operative April 2025 base layer.
2 calls from this report, among 39 in Mining & Manufacturing.
Each line is one call in the domain, from the day it was written to the day it resolves. This report's calls are lit; point at any line to read it.
- CLM-2026-262MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.25% · Did not come true · 10 Oct
- CLM-2026-263MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026.92% · resolves in 13 d
| ID | Statement | p | Made on | Resolves by | Status | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLM-2026-262 | MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025. | 0.25 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-10 | Resolved | FALSE Official policy shifts or extensions regarding major trade suspensions like Announcement No. 70 are typically synchronized with higher-level diplomatic meetings, or timed right before the actual expiration date (November 10, 2026). Furthermore, today is a Saturday, and both MOFCOM and White House press offices rarely drop major, non-emergency bilateral trade announcements over the weekend.2026-10-10 |
| CLM-2026-263 | MOFCOM and GACC Announcement No. 18 of 2025 has not been suspended, repealed or superseded as of 10 November 2026. | 0.92 | 2026-09-11 | 2026-11-10 | Locked |
A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.
The licensing regime has two separable layers: the suspended October 2025 controls and the still-operative April 2025 base layer.
The complete source registry, limits, methodology and binding forecast definitions are preserved in the downloadable report. Each forecast is locked before publication to a named public resolution source.
The evidence tiers, confidence bands, forward-claim rule and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.