CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE

“The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation credits United Russia with at least 300 of the 450 State Duma seats in its official determination of the results of the 18 to 20 September 2026 election.”

This claim comes from After the Duma, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.80 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 80 in 100. It resolves by 5 October 2026, only against a dated public source.

This call, in time

Written and locked11 Sep

Came true5 Oct

Today

On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon

From the reportAfter the Duma11 September 2026 · AIG-GOV-26-005

Its sibling calls

CLM-2026-265Representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine meet in the same room, each delegation including a qualifying senior official, in a meeting all three governments publicly acknowledge as trilateral, on or before 9 October 2026.55% · Did not come true · 9 Oct

Status

Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.

resolvedStatus

0.80Locked probability

2026-10-05Resolves by

TRUEOutcome · 2026-10-05

0.0400Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared

Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 5 October 2026 by a public source at www.interfax.ru: "Единая Россия" получает 349 мандатов в Думе. По итогам выборов в Госдуму "Единая Россия" получает 349 мандатов, КПРФ - 37, ЛДПР - 23, "Новые люди" - 19, "Справедливая Россия" - 17 мандатов... 140 по федеральному округу и 209 - по одномандатным округам.

Extraction and settlement

Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.

Where it was madeAIG-GOV-26-005, forward tranche POL-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0020

Window as stated2026-10-05

How it will be settledYES if the CEC's official determination credits United Russia with 300 or more seats, summing federal-list and single-member seats before later transfers, refusals, redistributions, or by-elections. Exactly 300 is YES; 299 is NO. Seats credited to United Russia nominees count; independents do not, even if they later join its faction. Score when the later of the two components is officially determined. If the CEC is unreachable, use Interfax Russian-language reporting of the determination; if that is also unreachable, use Rossiyskaya Gazeta; if all three are unreachable, require two independent allowlisted outlets to agree on the CEC-attributed total. The highest-priority reachable source governs any disagreement, which must be recorded. If no determination exists by 5 October, resolve when it is published and record the delay; do not infer a result from projections.

Where the probability came fromExplicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-005; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0020

Record classbrier native

Claim familyrussia-duma-seats-2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.

Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.

Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard

The series it resolves against

The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.

This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.