CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“CATL resumes ore mining at the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 January 2027.”
This claim comes from Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound, published on 28 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 28 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.45 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 45 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 31 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked28 Oct
Resolves by31 Jan
Today
On the Mining & Manufacturing Horizon
From the reportJianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound28 October 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-010Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-445The Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau issues its final approval of the environmental impact report for the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 December 2026.80% · resolves in 64 d
- CLM-2026-447The closing price of the most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on 31 December 2026.a range · resolves in 64 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.45Locked probability
2027-01-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound"
Window as statedup to and including 31 January 2027
How it will be settledMining.com: YES if Mining.com reports, on or before 31 January 2027, that ore extraction from the Jianxiawo open pit has resumed; trial runs, and processing of stockpiled ore without pit operation, do not count; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyjianxiawo-and-the-lithium-rebound; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-28, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.