CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The 10-year TIPS real yield for 31 December 2026 is at or above 2.60 percent.”
This claim comes from Gold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027, published on 13 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 13 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.70 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 70 in 100. It resolves by 5 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked13 Oct
Resolves by5 Jan
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportGold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 202713 October 2026 · AIG-BLK-26-009Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-412The settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31 December 2026 is about USD 4280 per troy ounce.a range · resolves in 83 d
- CLM-2026-413The settlement price of the COMEX February 2027 gold futures contract on 31 December 2026 is at or above USD 4650 per troy ounce.20% · resolves in 83 d
- CLM-2026-414The People's Bank of China reports gold reserves at the end of November 2026 higher than at the end of October 2026.85% · resolves in 57 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.70Locked probability
2027-01-05Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Gold Under a Hiking Fed: the Price Path to April 2027"
Window as statedfor the observation of 31 December 2026
How it will be settledFederal Reserve Economic Data: YES if the DFII10 observation for 2026-12-31, as first published, whatever the method, is at or above 2.60 percent; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familygold-under-a-hiking-fed-the-price-path-to-april-2027; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-13, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.