CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“The 47-project March 2025 strategic list, the 40 percent processing benchmark by 2030, and the 65 percent single-source cap are not trajectory-consistent with current EU dependency shares on China.”
This claim comes from The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack, published on 3 June 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 31 December 2030, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2030-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF p.4, KJ-3
Window as statedby 2030 (benchmark date)
How it will be settledEuropean Commission CRMA monitoring reports on EU processing share and single-country dependency versus the 40 percent and 65 percent benchmarks.
Where the probability came fromConfidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportMODERATE
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familymineral-export-controls; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.