CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).”
This claim comes from The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1, published on 9 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 July 2026. The firm locked a range of 3 to 5 percent YoY with a central estimate of 3.9; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 16 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
3 to 5 percent YoY (central 3.9)Locked range
2026-10-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeLocked in the firm's forward benchmark, tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709), item fwd-06, on 9 July 2026.
How it will be settledbls.gov CPI news release for September 2026.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record, forward benchmark tranche 1; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familyus-inflation-2026-09; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleholdout. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
SER-MAC-CPICPI (All Urban) · U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED) (T1) · data through 2026-07-01