“US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).”
This claim comes from The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1, published on 9 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 July 2026. The firm locked a range of 3 to 5 percent YoY with a central estimate of 3.9; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 16 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
- CLM-2026-245The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).25% · Did not come true · 16 Sep
- CLM-2026-246The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).15% · Did not come true · 2 Oct
- CLM-2026-247A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.25% · Did not come true · 2 Oct
- CLM-2026-248No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).96% · Came true · 15 Oct
- CLM-2026-249EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.a range · Did not come true · 7 Oct
- CLM-2026-251Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).60% · resolves in 13 d
Status
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 16 October 2026 by a public source at www.bls.gov: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.