CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“The closing price of the most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on 31 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound, published on 28 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 28 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 75000 to 130000 yuan per tonne with a central estimate of 97000; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked28 Oct
Resolves by31 Dec
Today
On the Mining & Manufacturing Horizon
From the reportJianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound28 October 2026 · AIG-MIN-26-010Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-445The Yichun Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau issues its final approval of the environmental impact report for the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 December 2026.80% · resolves in 64 d
- CLM-2026-446CATL resumes ore mining at the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 January 2027.45% · resolves in 95 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
75000 to 130000 yuan per tonne (central 97000)Locked range
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound"
Window as statedthe close of 31 December 2026
How it will be settledBloomberg News: the closing price of the most-active Guangzhou lithium carbonate contract on 31 December 2026, in yuan per tonne, as reported by Bloomberg News; scored as inside or outside the interval.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familyjianxiawo-and-the-lithium-rebound; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-28, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.