CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“The year-to-date growth of US commercial-sector retail electricity sales for January to September 2026 exceeds the year-to-date growth of US all-sector retail sales over the same months by at least 1.0 percentage point in the Electric Power Monthly with September 2026 data.”
This claim comes from The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.80 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 80 in 100. It resolves by 30 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.80Locked probability
2026-11-30Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Load Queue: Data Centers and America's Electricity Demand"
Window as stated30 Nov 2026
How it will be settledEnergy Information Administration: YES if, in Table 5.1 of the Electric Power Monthly with data for September 2026, the percentage increase in year-to-date commercial-sector retail sales for 2026 over 2025 minus the percentage increase in year-to-date all-sector retail sales for 2026 over 2025 is at least 1.0 percentage point, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-load-queue-data-centers-and-america-s-electricity-demand; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.