CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.”
This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.38 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 38 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 2 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked11 Sep
Came true5 Oct
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportHiking Into a Supply Shock11 September 2026 · AIG-ECO-26-001Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-268August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.62% · Did not come true · 2 Oct
- CLM-2026-270The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.35% · resolves in 3 d
- CLM-2026-271DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.38% · Did not come true · 10 Oct
- CLM-2026-272The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.70% · Did not come true · 15 Oct
- CLM-2026-273The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.68% · resolves in 3 d
- CLM-2026-274The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.78% · resolves in 3 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.38Locked probability
2026-10-02Resolves by
TRUEOutcome · 2026-10-05
0.3844Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 5 October 2026 by a public source at www.bls.gov: Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in September.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0025
Window as stated2026-10-02
How it will be settledTRUE if BLS first reports September unemployment at 4.2 percent or higher; otherwise FALSE.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0025
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.