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Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound cover
AIG-MIN-26-010 · Assessment · Mining & Manufacturing

Jianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound

The permit file is advancing, but the reported October rebound in Chinese lithium prices is unconfirmed

The reported late October jump in Chinese lithium carbonate futures cannot be confirmed, and the contract sits far below its May peak. What moves it next is one permit file in Yichun: with the Jianxiawo environmental review at the proposed approval stage, a restart early next year would add supply to a market already braced for surplus. Three forecasts are locked to named public resolution sources.

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        Updated 28 October 2026

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        This week on the record

        The Log.

        Everything published, locked, graded and corrected, in date order. Also as an RSS feed and a JSON file.

        1. 2026-10-28Claim resolvedCLM-2026-441US goods imports for September 2026 in the Census Bureau's advance report are…Supply Chain & LogisticsResolved TRUE: Imports of goods for September were $344.1 billion, $8.1 billion more than August imports.
        2. 2026-10-28Claim resolvedCLM-2026-336US Gulf of Mexico shut-in oil production falls below 5% of output by 23…Infrastructure & Catastrophe RiskResolved TRUE: On 14 October the MMA said there were “no known storm impacts preventing resumption of production,” and we found no published Isaias damage list.
        3. 2026-10-28Report publishedAIG-MIN-26-010Jianxiawo and the Lithium ReboundMining & ManufacturingJianxiawo and the Lithium Rebound joined the register on the Mining & Manufacturing desk.
        4. 2026-10-28Claim lockedCLM-2026-447The closing price of the most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at range 75000 to 130000 yuan per tonne: The closing price of the most-active lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on 31 December 2026.
        5. 2026-10-28Claim lockedCLM-2026-446CATL resumes ore mining at the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 January…Mining & ManufacturingLocked at p 0.45: CATL resumes ore mining at the Jianxiawo lithium mine on or before 31 January 2027.

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