Hiking Into a Supply Shock
The G4 Tightening Week, the Bill-Demand Triangle, and Who Absorbs $100 Oil
Four central banks deciding inside nine days can look like a synchronized turn. The evidence says otherwise. The common energy shock is reaching four different reaction functions while the U.S. bill market loses the absorber that made the 2023 issuance surge easy to clear. The durable signal is not simply whether a policy rate rises. It is the price at which cash and balance-sheet capacity agree to absorb the next bill wave. Seven forecasts are locked to named public resolution sources.
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