CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“The Legislative Yuan passes the 2027 central government general budget with the defence aggregate at or above NT$1.0 trillion on or before 31 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Three Percent on Paper, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.15 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 15 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 31 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.15Locked probability
2027-01-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-GOV-26-006, forward tranche POL-2-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0023
Window as stated2027-01-31
How it will be settledYES requires third reading of the 2027 central-government general budget on or before 31 December 2026 and a five-component defence aggregate of at least NT$1,000.0 billion at that reading. Sum the Ministry of National Defense general budget, the 2027 special-budget tranche, non-profit special funds, military pensions, and Coast Guard Administration. If a component is published only as a change, apply it to the proposal. If the enacted materials do not separately report the special-budget tranche, military pensions, or non-profit special funds, carry forward the proposed NT$218.2bn, NT$103.8bn, and NT$60.7bn respectively and disclose each substitution. Committee action, second reading, interim funding, continuation of the 2026 budget, and separate supplementary-budget passage do not count. Later reconsideration does not reverse the score. If no third reading occurs by 31 December, resolve NO. If timely third reading occurs but the five components remain unresolvable from the named sources through 31 January 2027 after the carry-forwards, resolve VOID.
Where the probability came fromExplicit analyst probability approved with AIG-GOV-26-006; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0023
Record classbrier native
Claim familytaiwan-defense-budget-2027; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.