CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The preliminary weekly count of Bab el-Mandeb transits in the first Lloyd's List Intelligence Red Sea Brief published on or after 24 November 2026 is 257 or more, at or above its January 2026 weekly average.”
This claim comes from Chokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit Counts, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 8 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2026-12-08Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Chokepoints: Panama, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz in Transit Counts"
Window as statedup to and including 8 Dec 2026
How it will be settledLloyd's List: YES if the Bab el-Mandeb transit count for the most recent complete week stated in the first Red Sea Brief published on or after 24 November 2026, as first published, whatever the method, is 257 or more; NO if it is lower; void if no such brief is published by 8 December 2026.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familychokepoints-panama-suez-bab-el-mandeb-and-hormuz-in-transit; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.