CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The FAO Food Price Index for November 2026, as first published, is at or above 140.1 points.”
This claim comes from The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?, published on 2 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 2 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.20 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 20 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 11 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.20Locked probability
2026-12-11Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Super El Nino Price Ledger: which food commodities reprice by mid-2027, and does the global index follow?"
Window as statedfor the month of November 2026, as first published on or before 11 December 2026
How it will be settledFAO statistical database: Yes if the headline FAO Food Price Index value for November 2026 in the first FAO release that publishes it, on or before 11 December 2026, is at or above 140.1 points; No otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-super-el-nino-price-ledger-which-food-commodities; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-02, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.