CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The maximum authorised draft in the Neopanamax locks of the Panama Canal, in tropical fresh water, in effect on 15 February 2027, measured in feet.”
This claim comes from Panama's Second Drought, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm locked a range of 45 to 48 feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft with a central estimate of 47; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 16 February 2027, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
45 to 48 feet TFW, maximum authorised Neopanamax draft (central 47)Locked range
2027-02-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-SCL-26-001, forward item SCL1-C2; engine record AIG-FWD-0040
Window as stated2027-02-16
How it will be settledOn 16 February 2027 a reader opens the ACP Advisory to Shipping register at https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/, identifies the most recent advisory that sets or confirms a maximum authorised draft for the Neopanamax locks with an effective date on or before 15 February 2027, and records the figure in feet TFW that the advisory itself states. Where the advisory states metres only, the reader converts at 1 m equals 3.28084 ft and rounds to one decimal place. That figure is the outcome. If an advisory sets a draft that is superseded by a later advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the later figure governs. If the register carries no Neopanamax draft advisory effective on or before 15 February 2027, the outcome is the draft last set before 10 September 2026, that is 48.0 ft. The interval is scored as an 80 percent interval: it is hit if the recorded figure falls at or between 45.0 and 48.0 inclusive.
Where the probability came fromLocked interval approved with AIG-SCL-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0040; outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familypanamas-second-drought; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.