30
Entries on the register
RESEARCH · THE PUBLISHED RECORD
This is every report the firm has published.
Every report the firm releases to the open record, catalogued under one numbering system and audited against AEGEAN-OS before publication. The register is the firm’s public evidence: every report carries the forward claims it made, locked on publication and scored on the Scorecard as they resolve.
6
Standing desks
620+
Approved sources
100%
Audited before release
01 · THE LETTER · MONTHLY
A MONTHLY SERIES · FIRST TUESDAY OF THE MONTH
The Letter.
One decision-window read a month, written to the same standard as every assessment on the register: facts separated from tagged judgments, forward claims locked on publication and scored on the Scorecard as they resolve. Each Letter keeps its PDF and its place in the archive.
NEXT LETTER ·
6 OCTOBER 2026
· THE OCTOBER LETTER
Subscribe to the Letter →
02 · CURRENT LEAD REPORT
AIG-ECO-26-001 · MAJOR REPORT · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS · 2026-09-11
Hiking Into a Supply Shock
The G4 Tightening Week, the Bill-Demand Triangle, and Who Absorbs $100 Oil
CENTRAL JUDGMENT
01The bill market has lost its former shock absorber. Domestic ON RRP use has remained below $1 billion since 7 August while reserve balances fell as the Treasury General Account rose. The conclusion rests on daily and weekly Federal Reserve series.HIGH
02The three expected demand legs weakened into rising supply, but the evidence supports a clearing-price problem, not imminent dysfunction. The direction of the Fed, stablecoin, and foreign official legs is established; substitution among money funds, repo, banks, and foreign buyers is not directly observable.MODERATE
03The next New York Fed purchase schedule has more structural significance for the front end than any single G4 rate vote. It changes the official bill flow directly, while the Desk retains discretion over timing and scale.MODERATE
03 · THE PRODUCT LINE
The firm publishes four products in fixed formats.
Every entry on the register is one of three defined products. The format never varies inside a product line: a reader who has seen one Aegean assessment can navigate all of them.
PRODUCT 01
Flash Note
A sourced first read on a breaking development, published while the decision window is open.
1 TO 2 PAGES · HOURS TO DAYS · PERISHABILITY DECLARED
PRODUCT 02
Assessment
The standard deep-read: key judgments, evidence base, confidence tags, and the decision the analysis supports.
10 TO 25 PAGES · KEY JUDGMENTS UP FRONT · FULL SOURCE REGISTRY
PRODUCT 03
Major Report
A sustained treatment of a system, decision window, and competing explanations, with integrated figures and a full audit trail.
25+ PAGES · SCENARIOS · SCORECARD · FULL SOURCE REGISTRY
PRODUCT 04
Rapid Intel Brief
A decision-ready brief built for a live clock, with a compact evidence base and a forecast that can be scored.
1 TO 4 PAGES · LIVE DECISION WINDOW · OPEN THE SERIES →
04 · THE DESKS · STANDING COVERAGE
Six desks keep a continuous watch.
The register is the visible output of a standing operation. Each desk maintains a watchlist of early-warning indicators, collects continuously against the approved source allowlist, and publishes when the evidence supports a judgment.
STANDING WATCHLIST
Sub-tier feedstock single-pointsELEVATED
Counter-UAS authority rulemakingWATCH
Principal digital-exposure brokersSTEADY
Prime consolidation, munitions baseSTEADY
UAS sightings near US airports, by fiscal year. Flat to falling since 2021.
FAA drone sightingsThrough FY2026 Q3
SCOPE
Sub-tier feedstock concentration, counter-UAS authority, principal and executive digital exposure.
LATEST REPORTING
AIG-DEF-26-004The Footprint Before the Threat2026-07-14 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-DEF-26-002The Protection Premium2026-06-19 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-DEF-26-003The Authority Gap2026-06-19 · ASSESSMENT
STANDING WATCHLIST
Tokenised treasury AUM migrationWATCH
Issuer reserve disclosure gapSTEADY
Transfer-agent concentrationWATCH
Deposit-bank transmission channelSTEADY
State Board of Equalization scheduling queueWATCH
Davidson County formal appeal volumeWATCH
Ten-year minus two-year Treasury spread. Positive since September 2024, and historically flat.
FRED T10Y2YThrough 4 Aug 2026
SCOPE
Sovereign-scale collateral on new rails, municipal reassessment, and the credit and rate signals that mark who absorbs the adjustment.
LATEST REPORTING
AIG-MUN-26-001The September Letter2026-07-30 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-BLK-26-001Stablecoin Treasury Linkage2026-06-03 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-BLK-26-002The Tokenised Treasury Migration2026-06-03 · ASSESSMENT
STANDING WATCHLIST
Hormuz transit authority / MOU trackELEVATED
War-risk premia, listed areasWATCH
Subsea incident clusters, Baltic & North SeaWATCH
Sanctions-touched fleet movementsSTEADY
Oil transit by chokepoint, million barrels a day. Bab el-Mandeb and Suez roughly halved.
EIA chokepointsThrough 1H 2025
SCOPE
Chokepoint transit authority and war-risk pricing, sanctions-touched fleets, subsea infrastructure, and freight exposure as coverage expands inland.
LATEST REPORTING
AIG-MAR-26-002The Attribution Gap2026-06-03 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-MAR-26-001The Re-Priced Corridor2026-06-01 · ASSESSMENT
STANDING WATCHLIST
MOFCOM licensing cadenceELEVATED
Western separation capacity buildoutWATCH
Indonesian downstreaming enforcementSTEADY
Magnet-feedstock premiumsWATCH
China's share of world production. Near total in processing, marginal in mining.
USGS MCS 2026Through Calendar 2025
SCOPE
Export-control regimes and processing chokepoints, where refining and fabrication capacity rather than extraction sets the constraint.
LATEST REPORTING
AIG-MIN-26-003The Rare-Earth Midstream2026-07-08 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-MIN-26-002The Critical Mineral Export Control Stack2026-06-03 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-MIN-26-001Critical Minerals Under Pressure2026-05-26 · ASSESSMENT
STANDING WATCHLIST
Cat-bond issuance paceWATCH
Carrier retreat, coastal booksELEVATED
Geodetic reference-frame rebuildSTEADY
Parametric trigger performanceSTEADY
Billion-dollar disaster events per year. The federal series was retired at 2024.
NOAA NCEI, retiredThrough 31 Dec 2024
SCOPE
Grids, ports and subsea cables and the programs that finance them, read through catastrophe: model failure, carrier retreat, ILS and parametric capital, public backstops.
LATEST REPORTING
AIG-INS-26-001When the Models Met Reality2026-05-26 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-INS-26-002The Uninsurable Frontier2026-05-26 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-INS-26-003The Ground Underneath the Map2026-05-26 · ASSESSMENT
STANDING WATCHLIST
Resource-nationalism wave 3 cohortELEVATED
Venezuela opening reversibilityWATCH
Capture environments, federal cycleSTEADY
Sanctions architecture driftWATCH
Investor-state dispute filings per year. Peaked in 2018; recent bars revise upward.
UNCTAD ISDS NavigatorThrough 31 Dec 2025
SCOPE
Resource-nationalist cycles, sanctions architecture, state transitions, and the capture environments where competitions are decided.
LATEST REPORTING
AIG-GOV-26-004The Field Before the RFP2026-07-16 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-GOV-26-003Who Owns the Risk?2026-06-19 · ASSESSMENT
AIG-GOV-26-002Venezuela After Maduro2026-06-16 · ASSESSMENT
05 · THE REGISTER
06 · STRUCTURAL SERIES
SERIES A · 3 PARTS · COMPLETE
The Insurance Sequence
How climate risk is repricing the entire stack, from catastrophe models to the reference frame under the maps.
Every entry is built to the same analytic standard.
Every report on this register separates fact from assessment from recommendation, cites tiered sources, carries calibrated confidence language, and passes the AEGEAN-OS audit before release. The full framework is public on the methodology page. Corrections, when required, issue as numbered addenda and are noted on the original report page.
HOW TO CITE THE REGISTER
Aegean Intelligence Group, “The Field Before the RFP,” AIG-GOV-26-004, The Aegean Register, 16 July 2026. aegeanintel.com/research/capture-field-read