CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.”
This claim comes from The Ground Underneath the Map, published on 26 May 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 31 December 2031, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written26 May
Locked on the record8 Sep
Resolves by31 Dec
Today
On the Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk Horizon
From the reportThe Ground Underneath the Map26 May 2026 · AIG-INS-26-003Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-015Parametric policy language issued during the 2026 to 2031 NSRS transition window will need to specify which datum applies, with formal conversion provisions, or contractual triggers will drift from physical signals by the conversion offset. We expect this to become a standard policy-language addition by 2027.65% · resolves in 429 d
- CLM-2026-022Baseline is the most likely twelve-month path.85% · resolves in 210 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2031-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF page 8 (printed p.7), Section 03 Assessment (HIGH)
Window as statedestimated five years post NAPGD2022 release; rationale cites 'the 2025 to 2031 window'
How it will be settledFEMA flood-map update guidance and DFIRM datum labels; NGS / FEMA joint advisories on datum conversion
Where the probability came fromConfidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportHIGH
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familyground-004; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.