CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“During the transition window between formal NAPGD2022 release and full FEMA flood-map conversion (an estimated five years), properties will be rated, surveyed, and elevation-certified under mixed datum vintages with conversion offsets handled jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction.”
This claim comes from The Ground Underneath the Map, published on 26 May 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 31 December 2031, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2031-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF page 8 (printed p.7), Section 03 Assessment (HIGH)
Window as statedestimated five years post NAPGD2022 release; rationale cites 'the 2025 to 2031 window'
How it will be settledFEMA flood-map update guidance and DFIRM datum labels; NGS / FEMA joint advisories on datum conversion
Where the probability came fromConfidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportHIGH
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familyground-004; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.