CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“At least one mitigation action taken by a state, local, tribal or territorial law enforcement or correctional agency under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2), meaning conduct described at 6 U.S.C. 124n(b)(1)(C), (D) or (F) and not detection, warning or confiscation by hand, occurring anywhere in the United States between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, is publicly reported by 31 October 2026.”
This claim comes from The Lead Agency Rule, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.20 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 20 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 31 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.20Locked probability
2026-10-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-DEF-26-008, forward item DEF-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0031
Window as stated2026-10-31
How it will be settledScores YES only if a source in the resolution_source list, published on or before 31 October 2026, states that a named or unnamed SLTT law enforcement or correctional agency disrupted control of, seized or exercised control of, or used force to disable, damage or destroy an unmanned aircraft, in the United States, on a date between 18 and 28 September 2026 inclusive, and either states that the agency acted under its own authority at 6 U.S.C. 124n(a)(2) or 6 CFR part 124, or describes the action in terms that exclude action as a federally deputized task force officer. Detection, identification, monitoring, tracking, warning of an operator, and physical confiscation of a landed or recovered aircraft do NOT score YES. A federal agency taking the action does not score YES. An action outside 18 to 28 September 2026 does not score YES. THE ABSENCE OF ANY PUBLIC REPORT SCORES NO. Ambiguity about whether the acting officers were deputized scores NO. The claim is scored on what is publicly readable on 31 October 2026; a later disclosure, including the 6 U.S.C. 124n(d)(2)(D) report due by 18 December 2026, does not reopen it.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-DEF-26-008; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0031
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-lead-agency-rule; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.