CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“Adama Barrow is declared the winner of The Gambia's 5 December 2026 presidential election.”
This claim comes from The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan, published on 14 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 14 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.70 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 70 in 100. It resolves by 20 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked14 Oct
Resolves by20 Dec
Today
On the Political Risk & Governance Horizon
From the reportThe Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan14 October 2026 · AIG-GOV-26-012Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-428National, ACT and NZ First together win more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives in New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election.35% · resolves in 51 d
- CLM-2026-429The Opportunity Party wins at least 5 percent of the party vote in New Zealand's 7 November 2026 general election.65% · resolves in 51 d
- CLM-2026-431Voting in South Sudan's general election takes place on 22 December 2026.25% · resolves in 83 d
- CLM-2026-432Bahrain holds a Council of Representatives election on any day up to and including 31 December 2026.5% · resolves in 83 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.70Locked probability
2026-12-20Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Election Tail: New Zealand, The Gambia, Bahrain and South Sudan"
Window as statedup to and including 20 December 2026
How it will be settledAl Jazeera: YES if Al Jazeera reports by 2026-12-20 that the electoral commission has declared Barrow the winner; NO if it reports another winner or no declaration by that date.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-election-tail-new-zealand-the-gambia-bahrain-and-south; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-14, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.