CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“Total Fed industrial production for September 2026 is unchanged or higher than in August.”
This claim comes from The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs, published on 10 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 10 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.55 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 55 in 100. It resolves by 16 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.55Locked probability
2026-10-16Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Factory Floor into Winter: ISM, Fed Output and Factory Jobs"
Window as stated16 Oct 2026
How it will be settledFederal Reserve Board data & statistics: YES if the industrial production release of 16 October 2026 shows a monthly change in total industrial production for September 2026 of 0.0 percent or more, as first published, whatever the method; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-factory-floor-into-winter-ism-fed-output-and-factory; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-10, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.