CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“Democrats win at least 218 seats in the House of Representatives in the 3 November 2026 election.”
This claim comes from Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk, published on 6 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 6 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.70 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 70 in 100. It resolves by 4 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.70Locked probability
2026-12-04Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk"
Window as statedup to and including 4 December 2026
How it will be settledAssociated Press: YES if, as of 2026-12-04, the Associated Press has declared Democratic winners in at least 218 of the 435 House races of the 3 November 2026 election; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familymidterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-06, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.