CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“The standard Section 232 rate of 50 percent on Annex I-A steel and aluminium articles of all origins remains in force through 7 January 2027.”
This claim comes from Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.88 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 88 in 100. It resolves by 7 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.88Locked probability
2027-01-07Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall"
Window as statedup to and including 7 January 2027
How it will be settledFederal Register: YES if no proclamation or notice published in the Federal Register on or before 7 January 2027 lowers the standard Annex I-A rate for steel or aluminium articles of all origins below 50 percent; reductions limited to named countries, named producers or named goods do not count.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familysteel-aluminium-and-the-50-percent-tariff-wall; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.