CLAIM · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK
“The total number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, counted at the season's end on 30 November 2026.”
This claim comes from The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks, published on 9 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 9 to 12 named storms with a central estimate of 10; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 1 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
9 to 12 named storms (central 10)Locked range
2026-12-01Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Hurricane That Hasn't Come: the 2026 Atlantic Season's Last Seven Weeks"
Window as statedon 30 November 2026
How it will be settledAssociated Press: the number of named storms in the 2026 Atlantic season stated in Associated Press end-of-season reporting published by 1 December 2026, operational count as first reported, whatever later reanalysis says.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-hurricane-that-hasn-t-come-the-2026-atlantic-season-s; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-09, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.