Aegean Intelligence Group
THE AEGEAN REGISTER / AIG-BLK-26-006AIG-BLK-26-006 · PUBLIC RELEASE · 2026
ReportAIG-BLK-26-006Economic & Financial MarketsCreated 2026-10-10Updated 2026-10-10Standard: AEGEAN-OS v1.3
Research / Economic & Financial Markets desk / AIG-BLK-26-006
ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS · ASSESSMENT · CURRENT

US Prices and Wages After the First Hike

The Fed's first hike met an inflation problem that sits in fuel, not in pay: wage growth is slowing while headline prices climb, real hourly pay is falling, and within this window the wage channel that turns an energy shock into lasting inflation has not opened.

ISSUED 10 OCTOBER 2026  ·  ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS  ·  AEGEAN INTELLIGENCE GROUP  ·  AUDITED AGAINST AEGEAN-OS
THE DOCUMENT
NumberAIG-BLK-26-006
Product IDPMR-2026-1010-GLB-006
ProductAssessment
Issued2026-10-10
Pages16
DistributionPublic release
TimelinessCURRENT
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Aegean Intelligence Group, “US Prices and Wages After the First Hike,” AIG-BLK-26-006, The Aegean Register, 10 October 2026.

US Prices and Wages After the First Hike cover
Cover
FORWARD CLAIMS · DATED TO PUBLICATION · SCORED ON THE SCORECARD →
IDStatementpMade onResolves byStatusOutcome
CLM-2026-348The CPI-U all items index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or above 3.5 percent.0.602026-10-102026-12-11Locked
CLM-2026-349The CPI-U all items less food and energy index 12-month change for November 2026 is at or below 2.6 percent.0.702026-10-102026-12-11Locked
CLM-2026-350Average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees rise 3.1 percent or less over the 12 months to October 2026.0.802026-10-102026-11-07Locked
CLM-2026-351Real average hourly earnings of all employees fall over the 12 months to November 2026.0.802026-10-102026-12-11Locked
CLM-2026-352The Employment Cost Index wages and salaries for civilian workers rise 3.3 percent or less over the 12 months to September 2026.0.752026-10-102026-10-31Locked
CLM-2026-353In November 2026 the CPI-U all items 12-month change exceeds the CPI-U all items less food and energy 12-month change by at least 0.8 percentage point.0.652026-10-102026-12-11Locked

A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.

THE CENTRAL JUDGMENT
KEY JUDGMENTS
Bottom line

The first hike landed on an inflation problem that is mostly in energy, not in pay. Wage growth has slowed while headline prices have accelerated, so real hourly pay is falling and the classic second-round channel from fuel to wages to services prices has not opened within this window. That turns the Fed's next move into a question about core PCE, its own projections and inflation expectations rather than about the labour market, and it makes a wage-price spiral the least likely of the paths ahead. The risks to this view are that energy costs pass through to core goods and services by way of freight, diesel and margins even without help from wages, and on the other side that pump prices, already off their September peak, keep easing and pull headline inflation back toward its August pace.

KJ-01Headline CPI inflation is likely to stay above its August pace in the September and November 12-month readings, driven by energy, with a firm October monthly change in between. The energy index was rising steeply over the year in August, pump prices remain well above their early September level even after easing from the late September peak, and the November reading is lifted by a low November 2025 base.MODERATE
KJ-02Core CPI inflation is likely to stay contained through the November reading, with only a small drift higher from core goods and a known mechanical lift in November from the low shelter base of November 2025. Core CPI slowed over the year to August, shelter is decelerating and the available nowcast keeps core CPI near its August rate.MODERATE
KJ-03Wage growth is unlikely to accelerate before the year ends, so the wage channel of a price spiral has not opened within this window. Average hourly earnings growth has eased for two months running and the Employment Cost Index slowed between March and June, while payroll gains have nearly stalled.MODERATE
KJ-04Real hourly pay is likely to keep falling over the year through November, but the squeeze has not yet reached household spending. Nominal pay growth sits below headline inflation, while real weekly earnings rose on longer hours and real spending rose in August on a low saving rate.MODERATE
KJ-05The case for a second hike rests on core PCE, the Committee's own projections and rising household inflation expectations rather than on wages or core CPI. Core PCE runs well above the goal and is nowcast to rise, the median projection already carries one more hike, and survey expectations have risen for two months, though that survey is off our Source List and the gap between core PCE and core CPI may narrow on revision.LOW
SOURCES AND LIMITS

Open-source intelligence current through 10 October 2026. The publication carries a 15-entry source registry, explicit confidence tags, limitations, and deterministic resolution rules for its forward claims.

SOURCE REGISTRY: 15 ENTRIES16 PAGESTIMELINESS: CURRENT

The source tiers, estimative language, forward-claim rule, scoring, and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.

CONNECTED RECORD
ASSESSMENTEconomic & Financial Markets deskContinue through this publication line.SCORECARDForward claimsInspect the locked probabilities and resolution rules.METHODOLOGYHow this publication is sourced and scoredEvidence tiers, confidence, claims, and corrections.
Connected objects
Claims (6)
Desk (1)
Series a claim resolves against (0)

No claim on this report names a series the Dashboard carries.