CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.”
This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.62 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 62 in 100. It resolves by 30 September 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked11 Sep
Did not come true2 Oct
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportHiking Into a Supply Shock11 September 2026 · AIG-ECO-26-001Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-269September 2026 unemployment is at or above 4.2 percent.38% · Came true · 5 Oct
- CLM-2026-270The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.35% · resolves in 3 d
- CLM-2026-271DefiLlama reports total stablecoin market capitalization at or above $320 billion on 9 October 2026.38% · Did not come true · 10 Oct
- CLM-2026-272The New York Fed schedule published in October provides for reserve-management purchases greater than zero for the mid-October to mid-November period.70% · Did not come true · 15 Oct
- CLM-2026-273The three-month Treasury bill closes at or above IORB on 31 October 2026.68% · resolves in 3 d
- CLM-2026-274The Treasury General Account exceeds $1.0 trillion on at least one business day in October 2026.78% · resolves in 3 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.62Locked probability
2026-09-30Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-10-02
0.3844Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 2 October 2026 by a public source at www.bea.gov: Core PCE inflation was 3.0% year over year. Proposed disposition: FALSE.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0024
Window as stated2026-09-30
How it will be settledTRUE if BEA's first published August 2026 core PCE 12-month change is at least 3.3 percent; otherwise FALSE.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0024
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.