CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“August 2026 core PCE inflation is at or above 3.3 percent year over year.”
This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.62 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 62 in 100. It resolves by 30 September 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.62Locked probability
2026-09-30Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0024
Window as stated2026-09-30
How it will be settledTRUE if BEA's first published August 2026 core PCE 12-month change is at least 3.3 percent; otherwise FALSE.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0024
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.