CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.”
This claim comes from The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1, published on 9 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 July 2026. The firm locked a range of 62 to 105 USD/bbl with a central estimate of 80; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 6 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked9 Jul
Did not come true7 Oct
Today
On the Economic & Financial Markets Horizon
From the reportThe Forward Benchmark, Tranche 19 July 2026 · AIG-FWD-26-001
Its sibling calls
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Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
62 to 105 USD/bbl (central 80)Locked range
2026-10-06Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-10-07
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 7 October 2026 by a public source at kalshi.com: Brent crude oil price on October 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? $ 102.25
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeLocked in the firm's forward benchmark, tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709), item fwd-05, on 9 July 2026.
How it will be settledeia.gov, Europe Brent Spot Price FOB daily (RBRTE).
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record, forward benchmark tranche 1; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familyiran-hormuz-2026-q3; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleholdout. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
SER-MKT-BRENTBrent Crude · Yahoo Finance (T4) · data through 2026-10-28