Rise of North American Energy Dominance

The Gulf supply shock has turned North American producers into the marginal supplier of crude and LNG to Asia and Europe, and that role will outlast the war for gas more than for oil. In crude, US output is at a record and the EIA expects it to keep growing, but the response is measured in quarters and cannot replace lost Gulf barrels, so the level of Brent follows the Hormuz talks while continental supply works on the Brent to WTI spread. In LNG, new export capacity is starting up and ramping while domestic gas stays cheap against overseas benchmarks, which makes the export margin durable even if a settlement narrows it. The main risk to the security side of the thesis is the drawdown of strategic oil stocks: it supported supply this summer but left a thinner buffer if the conflict persists.