CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“MOFCOM or the White House announces, on or before 10 October 2026, an extension beyond 10 November 2026 of the suspension of MOFCOM and GACC Announcements 55, 56, 57 and 58 of 2025 and MOFCOM Announcements 61 and 62 of 2025.”
This claim comes from Forty-Seven Days to November 10, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.25 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 25 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 10 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.25Locked probability
2026-10-10Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-MIN-26-004, forward tranche MFG-1-C1; engine record AIG-FWD-0018
Window as stated2026-10-10
How it will be settledResolves YES if, at any time from the lock date up to and including 23:59 Beijing time on 10 October 2026, either (a) a numbered MOFCOM or MOFCOM-and-GACC announcement appears on the 2026 announcements index whose text extends, prolongs or replaces the suspension set by Announcement No. 70 of 2025 to a date later than 10 November 2026, or (b) a White House fact sheet or equivalent official White House statement states that China will extend, or has agreed to extend, that suspension beyond 10 November 2026. Otherwise resolves NO. Scoring notes, binding on both scorers. (1) An announcement that extends the suspension without naming an end date resolves YES, because the suspension is thereby not lapsing on 10 November 2026; the absence of an end date is recorded in the resolution note but does not change the score. (2) An announcement made after 10 October 2026 but before 10 November 2026 resolves NO. The claim is about the timing of the announcement, not about whether the suspension ultimately lapses. (3) A statement by an official, a spokesperson or a press-conference transcript that is not a numbered MOFCOM instrument and not a White House fact sheet or equivalent official written White House statement does not resolve YES on its own. (4) An announcement covering only some of the six named instruments resolves NO unless all six are extended. (5) An instrument extending only the suspension of clause two of Announcement No. 46 of 2024, which runs to 27 November 2026 under Announcement No. 72 of 2025, does not resolve this claim YES, because that is a separate instrument. (6) Repeal or permanent removal of all six instruments, rather than extension of their suspension, resolves YES.
Where the probability came fromExplicit analyst probability approved with AIG-MIN-26-004; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0018
Record classbrier native
Claim familychina-rare-earth-suspension-2026; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.