CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The Senate agrees to a full text of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027, whether S. 4784, H.R. 8800 as amended or a negotiated text moved on any vehicle, on or before 7 December 2026.”
This claim comes from The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year?, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.25 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 25 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 8 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.25Locked probability
2026-12-08Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year?"
Window as statedon or before 7 December 2026
How it will be settledCongress.gov: YES if the Congress.gov actions for any such measure record Senate passage of, or Senate agreement to, the full defense authorization text by recorded or voice vote dated on or before 2026-12-07, a cloture vote alone not counting; otherwise NO.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-stalled-ndaa-does-congress-pass-a-defense-bill-this-year; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.