CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“Violent disorder described as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation takes place on at least two consecutive nights in a single town or city in the United Kingdom, Ireland or an EU Member State between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.”
This claim comes from Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest, published on 29 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 29 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.40 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 40 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 27 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.40Locked probability
2026-12-27Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Elevated and Persistent Risk of Unrest in Western Europe: Migration, Political Violence and the Flashpoints Where Tension Is Highest"
Window as statedViolent disorder described as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation takes place on at least two consecutive nights in a single town or city in the United Kingdom, Ireland or an EU Member State between 2026-09-29 and 2026-12-26.
How it will be settledReuters: YES if Reuters reports, in the window, violent disorder in one town or city on at least two consecutive nights that Reuters or the police describe as anti-migrant, anti-immigrant or directed against asylum seekers or their accommodation; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyelevated-and-persistent-risk-of-unrest-in-western-europe; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-29, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.