The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction

Why the last collared auction is likely to clear at its ceiling again

PJM's base capacity auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year is likely to clear at its price cap for a fourth straight time, because the shortage that pushed the last three auctions to the ceiling has not closed and the backstop meant to close it has stalled at the regulator.

ISSUED 26 OCTOBER 2026 · INFRASTRUCTURE & CATASTROPHE RISK · AEGEAN INTELLIGENCE GROUP · AUDITED AGAINST AEGEAN-OS

THE DOCUMENT

NumberAIG-INS-26-009

Product IDPMR-2026-1026-GLB-009

ProductAssessment

Issued2026-10-26

Pages17

DistributionPublic release

TimelinessCURRENT

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HOW TO CITE

Aegean Intelligence Group, “The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction,” AIG-INS-26-009, The Aegean Register, 26 October 2026.

The Fourth Cap: PJM's December 2029/2030 Capacity Auction cover

Abstract

Central finding

The capacity price in PJM is set at an administrative ceiling, because demand growth from large loads has outrun new supply and the shortfall against the reliability requirement has grown with each auction. The ceiling truncates a demand curve that would otherwise cross supply above it: the shortfall shows that, and PJM's simulation suggests by how much. The December auction runs under the same collar, with the same shortage and without the backstop supply that was meant to relieve it. A fourth cap clear is the likely outcome, and the real question for buyers and sellers is what happens to the price signal when the collar ends with this auction, unless state and federal affordability pressure, the stalled backstop or both bring a further extension.

Publication at a glance

Source registry19 entries

Forward claims2

Pages17

Issued 2026-10-26Public releaseCURRENTAIG-INS-26-009

Cover

On the record

2 calls from this report, among 24 in Infrastructure & Catastrophe Risk.

Each line is one call in the domain, from the day it was written to the day it resolves. This report's calls are lit; point at any line to read it.

FORWARD CLAIMS · DATED TO PUBLICATION · SCORED ON THE SCORECARD →

ID	Statement	p	Made on	Resolves by	Status	Outcome
CLM-2026-443	The shortfall of capacity cleared in PJM's base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year, with fixed resource requirement commitments, against that auction's reliability requirement, in MW.	3000 to 11000 MW (central 7000)	2026-10-26	2026-12-31	Locked
CLM-2026-444	PJM publishes the results of its base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year on or before 31 December 2026.	0.90	2026-10-26	2026-12-31	Locked

A claim is entered in the brief's own words and carries its publication date and the day it entered the ledger: the register's briefs on 8 September 2026, when the standard was first applied; the forward benchmark on the day it was locked. It resolves only against a dated public source. The scoring rule is on the Methodology page.

THE CENTRAL JUDGMENT

KEY JUDGMENTS

Bottom line

KJ-01The base residual auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year will likely clear at the RTO price cap. The shortage that set the price in the last three auctions has not closed, FERC rejected the route that would have let curtailable large loads connect without capacity backing, and no new supply route has opened in time, but the adjusted cap and the reliability requirement for this auction are not yet in the record we read.MODERATE

KJ-02The cap is binding in PJM: it sits on a demand curve that would otherwise clear above it, so the ceiling rather than the meeting of supply and demand sets the price. The last auction cleared several gigawatts short of the reliability requirement at the cap, which on PJM's sloped demand curve carries a price above the cap whatever the offers were, as PJM's own results and two independent trade reports show, and only the size of the gap, not its existence, rests on PJM's simulated uncapped price.HIGH

KJ-03The reliability backstop will not add capacity that counts in the December auction. FERC accepted the design only in part and suspended it until the end of next February, PJM's refiling was due only at the end of October, and even the original schedule finished selection only days before the auction window.MODERATE

KJ-04Two risks stand against a fourth cap clear, a delay of the auction past year end and a below-cap RTO clear, and they are of similar size to each other with neither dominating. PJM was reported in early October as still planning the December auction, and our own claims leave about one chance in ten for no results by year end and a little more for a held auction clearing below the cap, against three chances in four for a cap clear.LOW

KJ-05The December auction is the last one the collar covers, so the pressure on prices moves to the following auction unless the collar is extended again, and the stalled backstop is one route to a further extension beside state and federal affordability pressure. The last extension followed calls from the governors of all PJM states and the White House National Energy Dominance Council, as two listed trade reports record, while nothing in the record ties any extension to the backstop alone and no further extension has been filed.MODERATE

SOURCES AND LIMITS

Open-source intelligence current through 26 October 2026. The publication carries a 19-entry source registry, explicit confidence tags, limitations, and deterministic resolution rules for its forward claims.

SOURCE REGISTRY: 19 ENTRIES17 PAGESTIMELINESS: CURRENT

The source tiers, estimative language, forward-claim rule, scoring, and corrections record are public on the Methodology page.