CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“The US Midwest hot-rolled coil futures close on 31 December 2026 falls inside our range.”
This claim comes from Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm locked a range of 1100 to 1400 USD per short ton with a central estimate of 1250; a range item is scored by whether the published figure lands inside the band, outside the Brier rule. It resolves by 31 December 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
1100 to 1400 USD per short ton (central 1250)Locked range
2026-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Steel, Aluminium and the 50 Percent Tariff Wall"
Window as statedthe close of 31 December 2026, or the last trading day before it
How it will be settledInvesting.com: the measure read is the US Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Futures closing price for 31 December 2026, or the last trading day before it, in USD per short ton, as first published.
Where the probability came fromLocked range of record from the approved PMR; scored by interval coverage, outside the Brier rule
Record classbrier native
Claim familysteel-aluminium-and-the-50-percent-tariff-wall; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.