CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).”
This claim comes from The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1, published on 9 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 July 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.15 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 15 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 1 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.15Locked probability
2026-10-01Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeLocked in the firm's forward benchmark, tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709), item fwd-02, on 9 July 2026.
How it will be settledUKMTO advisories and EIA petroleum market commentary; USNI News as corroborating record.
Where the probability came fromLocked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)
Record classbrier native
Claim familyiran-hormuz-2026-q3; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleholdout. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
SER-MAR-STRAIT-OF-HORMUZStrait of Hormuz · IMF PortWatch (T4) · data through 2026-09-06