CLAIM · SUPPLY CHAIN & LOGISTICS
“The Strait of Hormuz is open to unrestricted commercial transit on 2026-10-01: no closure, no convoy/escort-only regime, and war-risk routing normalized (transits not materially restricted relative to pre-crisis operations).”
This claim comes from The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1, published on 9 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 July 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.15 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 15 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 1 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
This call, in time
Written and locked9 Jul
Did not come true2 Oct
Today
On the Supply Chain & Logistics Horizon
From the reportThe Forward Benchmark, Tranche 19 July 2026 · AIG-FWD-26-001
Its sibling calls
- CLM-2026-245The federal funds target range standing at the conclusion of the September 2026 FOMC meeting (2026-09-17) is below 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent (i.e., the Committee has cut at the July or September meeting).25% · Did not come true · 16 Sep
- CLM-2026-247A US-Iran agreement (ceasefire, interim framework, or comprehensive deal) is publicly announced by both governments on or before 2026-09-30.25% · Did not come true · 2 Oct
- CLM-2026-248No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).96% · Came true · 15 Oct
- CLM-2026-249EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (daily series RBRTE) for 2026-10-01, or the nearest prior published trading day, in dollars per barrel.a range · Did not come true · 7 Oct
- CLM-2026-250US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).a range · Came true · 16 Oct
- CLM-2026-251Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).60% · resolves in 13 d
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.15Locked probability
2026-10-01Resolves by
FALSEOutcome · 2026-10-02
0.0225Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared
Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 2 October 2026 by a public source at www.maritime.dot.gov: The evidence shows continuing attacks, protected transit, and materially depressed traffic.
CorrectionA correction to this claim was recorded on 5 October 2026. Read what was wrong and what changed.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeLocked in the firm's forward benchmark, tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709), item fwd-02, on 9 July 2026.
How it will be settledUKMTO advisories and EIA petroleum market commentary; USNI News as corroborating record.
Where the probability came fromLocked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)
Record classbrier native
Claim familyiran-hormuz-2026-q3; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleholdout. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
SER-MAR-STRAIT-OF-HORMUZStrait of Hormuz · IMF PortWatch (T4) · data through 2026-10-25