CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“The OCC or FDIC publishes a final GENIUS implementing rule in the Federal Register by 31 October 2026.”
This claim comes from Hiking Into a Supply Shock, published on 11 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.35 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 35 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 31 October 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.35Locked probability
2026-10-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeAIG-ECO-26-001, forward item CR-2-C3; engine record AIG-FWD-0026
Window as stated2026-10-31
How it will be settledTRUE if a final rule from OCC or FDIC implementing GENIUS is published by 23:59 ET; otherwise FALSE.
Where the probability came fromApproved by Principal Zacharias Lorance with AIG-ECO-26-001; immutable engine record AIG-FWD-0026
Record classbrier native
Claim familyhiking-into-a-supply-shock; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.