CLAIM · POLITICAL RISK & GOVERNANCE
“A lapse in appropriations shuts down any part of the federal government between 12 December and 31 December 2026.”
This claim comes from Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk, published on 6 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 6 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.20 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 20 in 100, so the firm expected it not to hold. It resolves by 3 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.20Locked probability
2027-01-03Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Midterm Ledger 2026: control, the close seats, and what a split Congress does to policy risk"
Window as statedfrom 12 December 2026 to 31 December 2026 inclusive
How it will be settledCongress.gov: YES if no continuing resolution or full-year appropriations act covering the agencies funded by the current stopgap is enacted before its expiry, so that a lapse in appropriations begins on any day from 12 December 2026 to 31 December 2026 inclusive, as shown by the enactment dates on Congress.gov; NO otherwise.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familymidterm-ledger-2026-control-the-close-seats-and-what-a; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-06, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.