CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“Even with FY2027-funded large-lot orders, Tomahawk first deliveries do not arrive until March 2030.”
This claim comes from The Western Munitions Bottleneck, published on 3 June 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.85 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 85 in 100. It resolves by 31 March 2030, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.85Locked probability
2030-03-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF page 3 (printed 2), Key Judgments, KJ-3; repeated in Section 05 Assessment (HIGH) on PDF page 11
Window as statedMarch 2030 (Tomahawk); early 2029 (SM-6)
How it will be settledNavy FY2027 budget justification books and Raytheon / NAVSEA delivery announcements for FY2027-lot Tomahawks; SM-6 inventory levels are not public, so the SM-6 half is only indirectly checkable via CSIS estimates.
Where the probability came fromConfidence band HIGH on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportHIGH
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familymunitions-bottleneck; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.