Aegean Intelligence Group
THE INTELLIGENCE PORTAL / CLAIMCLM-2026-248 · PUBLIC RECORD · 2026
ClaimCLM-2026-248Defense & SecurityCreated 2026-07-09Updated 2026-10-15apnews.comStandard: AEGEAN-OS v1.3
CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY

“No PRC blockade, quarantine, or sustained kinetic fires against Taiwan is initiated on or before 2026-10-15 (the standoff holds through the window).”

This claim comes from The Forward Benchmark, Tranche 1, published on 9 July 2026, and entered the ledger on 9 July 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.96 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 96 in 100. It resolves by 15 October 2026, only against a dated public source.

This call, in time
Written and locked9 Jul
Came true15 Oct
Today
On the Defense & Security Horizon
From the reportThe Forward Benchmark, Tranche 19 July 2026 · AIG-FWD-26-001
Its sibling calls
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  5. CLM-2026-250US CPI-U all items 12-month percent change for September 2026 (BLS CPI news release, mid-October 2026).a range · Came true · 16 Oct
  6. CLM-2026-251Democrats hold a House of Representatives majority per AP-called races as of 2026-11-10 (2026 midterm outcome).60% · resolves in 13 d

Status

Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
resolvedStatus
0.96Locked probability
2026-10-15Resolves by
TRUEOutcome · 2026-10-15
0.0016Headline score contribution, (p minus outcome) squared

Resolved means settled true or false. It was settled on 15 October 2026 by a public source at apnews.com: China sends military aircraft, coast guard ships and other vessels around Taiwan on a near-daily basis and periodically conducts large-scale military exercises. Taiwan also regularly holds military drills, including its annual Han Kuang exercises.

Extraction and settlement

Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madeLocked in the firm's forward benchmark, tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709), item fwd-04, on 9 July 2026.
How it will be settledDoD and INDOPACOM statements and USNI News; AP wire of record.
Where the probability came fromLocked probability of record, forward benchmark tranche 1 (charter AIG-FWD-CHARTER-2026-0709)
Record classbrier native
Claim familytaiwan-standoff-2026-q3; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleholdout. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard

The series it resolves against

The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.

This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.

Connected objects
Report (1)
Desk (1)
Series (0)

This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.

Dataset (1)