CLAIM · ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL MARKETS
“EIA weekly US crude oil field production for the week ending 2026-11-20 is at or above 13.90 mb/d.”
This claim comes from Rise of North American Energy Dominance, published on 29 September 2026, and entered the ledger on 29 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.75 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 75 in 100. It resolves by 25 November 2026, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.75Locked probability
2026-11-25Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "Rise of North American Energy Dominance"
Window as statedEIA weekly US crude oil field production for the week ending 2026-11-20 is at or above 13.90 mb/d.
How it will be settledEIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: Yes if the weekly series for US field production of crude oil, as first published for the week ending 2026-11-20, shows 13,900 thousand barrels per day or more; otherwise No.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familyrise-of-north-american-energy-dominance; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-29, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.