CLAIM · MINING & MANUFACTURING
“Even the IEA's diversification case has China supplying a majority of refined output for key minerals into the mid-2030s.”
This claim comes from Critical Minerals Under Pressure, published on 26 May 2026, and entered the ledger on 8 September 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 31 December 2035, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2035-12-31Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madePDF p.10, Section 05 Assessment (Moderate Confidence)
Window as statedinto the mid-2030s
How it will be settledIEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook refining-share series through 2035.
Where the probability came fromConfidence band MODERATE on the judgment, mapped by the Methodology forward-claim standard (chapter 08, fixed 2026-09-08)
Band in the reportMODERATE
Record classlegacy prospective
Claim familyminerals-001; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-09-08, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.