CLAIM · DEFENSE & SECURITY
“The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 is enacted into law on or before 3 January 2027.”
This claim comes from The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year?, published on 11 October 2026, and entered the ledger on 11 October 2026. The firm put a probability of 0.65 on it: the chance the firm put on it being true, fixed when it was locked, about 65 in 100. It resolves by 7 January 2027, only against a dated public source.
Status
Where the claim stands on the ledger, the probability the firm locked, and the dates that govern it.
lockedStatus
0.65Locked probability
2027-01-07Resolves by
Locked means recorded and waiting. Its window is still running. Nothing in a locked claim is edited after the fact.
Extraction and settlement
Where the sentence came from, and the public source that decides it.
Where it was madethe Outlook of the PMR "The Stalled NDAA: Does Congress Pass a Defense Bill This Year?"
Window as statedon or before 3 January 2027
How it will be settledCongress.gov: YES if Congress.gov shows a public law enacted on or before 2027-01-03 whose short title is the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027, whatever its bill number or vehicle and including enactment over a veto; otherwise NO.
Where the probability came fromthe author's probability in the approved PMR
Record classbrier native
Claim familythe-stalled-ndaa-does-congress-pass-a-defense-bill-this-year; used to avoid presenting related claims as independent trials.
Learning roleoperational. Holdout claims may score publicly but never train the Learning Loop.
Extracted2026-10-11, against the forward-claim standard
The series it resolves against
The data series, if any, whose values settle the outcome.
This claim names no series the Dashboard carries; it resolves against the public source recorded with it.